The February employment report, released Mar. 6, was not as bad as some
on Wall Street had feared, but it was still pretty lousy. Nonfarm
payrolls fell another 651,000 in February, while the unemployment rate
jumped to 8.1% from 7.6%. The deep job losses point to protracted
weakness in the U.S. labor market, with Standard & Poor's
forecasting another 2 million job losses by fall.
Wall Street economists and analysts had plenty to say about the jobs report and other key topics on Mar. 6. Here's a sampling:
William Knapp, MainStay Investments
February payroll and unemployment data came in pretty much as
anticipated. The Labor Dept. reported Friday in its Payroll Survey that
the U.S. economy shed 651,000 jobs for the month. In the separate
Household Survey, the unemployment rate rose half a percent, to 8.1%.
Revisions to January and December cropped an additional 161,000
jobs. Cumulative jobs lost since the current recession began in
December 2007 stand at about 4.4 million, with much of that loss (2.6
million jobs) occurring in the past four months.
At 8.1%, the unemployment rate now exceeds the peak from the 1991
recession, 7.8% in June of 1992, and is at a 25-year high. During the
recession of the early 1980s, the unemployment rate was greater than 8%
for 26 months, from November 1981 through January 1984. From September
1982 through June of 1983 (10 months), the rate was greater than 10%,
peaking at 10.8% in November and December of 1982.
Unemployment claims remain high, but did unexpectedly decline last
week. For the week ending February 28, the seasonally adjusted initial
claims for unemployment was 639,000, a decrease of 31,000 from the
previous week's revised figure of 670,000, the Labor Dept. reported
Thursday. The four-week moving average was 641,750, up 2,000 from last
week.
John Ryding, Conrad DeQuadros, RDQ Economics
Horrendous! There can be no other word to describe this employment
report. Adding in the revisions to December and January, there are more
than 800,000 fewer jobs in February than were previously reported for
January, while the unemployment rate is higher than at any time since
December 1983. Unfortunately, the weekly jobless claims data suggest
more of the same is coming for March. It appears that the economy is
contracting at a 6% or so pace in the first quarter, following a 6.2%
drop in the fourth quarter. It is unlikely to be long before we hear
calls for more stimulus in Washington.
Michael Englund, Action Economics
Today's U.S. jobs report came remarkably close to a bulls-eye,
though the markets traded upward as fear of a massive undershoot was
unwound. The data were hardly "good news," however, as the numbers
confirm that the rapid pace of labor market contraction evident through
December and January extended into February as well, with a likely
remaining round of weak reports for the month.
In short, though the Fed should remain as pessimistic as ever
through the next two FOMC meetings, the official projections were
already sufficiently dire to incorporate today's job market figures,
which failed to provide evidence of weakness beyond what the market had
already widely assumed.
Tony Crescenzi, Miller Tabak
The current quarter is likely to be the worst of the recession—the
trough. For Wall Street, this lessens the importance of today's grim
employment statistics. The case for a trough is fairly simple and based
far more on fact than wishful thinking. This does not mean that it is
time to commit significantly to riskier assets, but it is time to
expect data to be less grim than they've been, and to watch the
evolution of the data to judge whether and how the less-dire tone to
the data might push investors to take on more risk. Today's employment
statistics were not poor enough relative to estimates to shake out
investors and lead to a capitulation worthy of buying, so most market
trends are likely to persist. The notion of a trough would supersede
that of a capitulation, if it develops.
Sam Stovall, Standard & Poor's
Why should anyone care if a stock is trading below $5 per share?
First, many financial institutions are not allow to hold equities that
trade below this threshold. As a result, these funds will jettison
these issues once they fall below this level, and will avoid them until
their stock prices move back above this threshold. As a result, these
issues get pressured on the way down, and then lose out on
"bottom-fishing" support until they float to the top again of their own
volition. What's more, financial advisors are often, but not always,
denied the ability to solicit the purchase of shares that trade below
$5, again removing a second source of support.
It probably comes as no surprise that these issues are concentrated
in the sectors that have been beaten up the most in the past year and a
half. In the S&P 500, where 10% of the companies now trade below
$5, a greater-than 10% concentration is found in the Consumer
Discretionary, Financials, Information Technology, and Telecom Services
sectors. In the S&P MidCap 400, again 10% of the members trade
below $5, with double-digit sector concentration found in Consumer
Discretionary, Energy, Industrials, Information Technology, Materials,
and Telecom Services. Telecom was highest at 33%, while Tech was next
largest at 15%. The Utilities sector was the only one with no sub-$5
constituents.
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