There is a sense of economic crisis in Britain as the recession
looms. Such crisis moments tend to re-mold "common sense" ideas, with
many orthodox economic assumptions proving highly vulnerable to
revision in the wake of last autumn's financial meltdown. So could
Britain's determination to remain outside the eurozone be the next
orthodoxy to fail? It was an idea floated in the midst of the financial
crisis by Jean-Claude Juncker, the Luxembourg premier and head of the
Eurogroup of finance ministers, who was reported as saying that
circumstances might prompt Britain to rethink its policy. Commission
President Jose Manuel Barroso has since repeated the idea. Looked at in
political terms, how likely does this prospect seem?
Britain's official reasons for staying out of the eurozone were set
down after "New Labour" took office in 1997. When Chancellor of the
Exchequer, or finance minister, the country's current prime minister,
Gordon Brown, established five key tests which would have to be met
with "clear and unambiguous" evidence before Britain would consider
joining the euro. These tests were defined in such a way that the
prospect of membership was effectively removed from the short-term
political agenda. The policy was often assumed to be more in tune with
Brown's euro-skepticism than the ostensibly pro-European views of
then-Prime Minister Tony Blair. So when Brown replaced Blair, it hardly
seemed likely to herald another euro debate.
Yet there are now several reasons why the debate may return to the
political agenda. First is the way that the current crisis is
redefining prevailing economic attitudes. Confidence in the British
economic model has been shattered, along with the grounds for its often
lofty disdain towards rival continental models. The financial crisis
has provoked heightened levels of interaction between E.U. governments
and finance ministries, and while this has not always led to
coordination, efforts at international management of the economy have
rarely been more visible.
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